Contents

Журнал: История и современность. Выпуск №4(38)/2020 - подписаться на статьи журнала

Theory

Sergey Yu. Malkov. Socio-political instability: a logical-mathematical analysis (pp. 3–61).

Modelling and forecasting the risks of socio-political instability in various countries of the world is an extremely relevant but also very difficult task, since the socio-political stability of social systems in the presence of destabilizing influences depends on a wide range of internal and external factors of objective and subjective nature, which are intertwined with each other in a complicated way. The analysis of the risks of socio-political destabilization in particular cases is usually quite subjective. The use of instability indices based on statistical data processing increases the objectivity of politological analysis, but so far there is no index that is able to predict with a high degree of confidence the occurrence of socio-political destabilization in a particular country, due to the uniqueness of every situation. A ‘point-counter’ analysis with the use of instability indices that reflect the current situation in a country usually does not provide reliable results. To increase the reliability of the analysis, we need a theoretical concept and related logical and mathematical tools which allow us to consider instability as a consequence of reduced stability of socio-economic systems (SES) under the influence of certain factors from a general perspective. In the present article the author has developed and proposes a methodical approach to solve this scientific problem.

Keywords: socio-political instability, modelling, risk forecasting, logical-mathematical analysis, instability index, social subjects, synchronization, chaos, control system, values, types of social structures, dynamic systems.

The Epoch of Global Changes

Andrey I. Zhdanov. The threats of deconsolidation of liberal democracy: defining the main path of erosion of the democratic regime by the example of the United States (pp. 62–77).

The present paper provides an analysis of the causes and factors of deconsolidation of liberal democracy using the example of the United States of America. The phenomenon of erosion of democratic regime in the United States is considered in the course of the research within the methodological framework of traditional theory of democracy, as well as other concepts explaining the causes of deconsolidation of one of the oldest democracies in the world. This approach allows a systematic review of the driving forces of the centrifugal processes unfolding in the US and allows considering this process as caused by the erosion of multiple components of democracy, including previously highly effective state institutions, consolidated elites, centripetally oriented counter-elites, civic culture of the population, seemingly firmly established zero tolerance for political violence and many other systemic factors of a stable democracy. The author provides arguments that since the 1990s the destruction of certain components of consolidated democracy has entailed an interruption of the US democratic regime as a whole.

Keywords: liberal democracy, the USA, deconsolidation, theory of democracy, political regime, effectiveness of institutions, civic culture, zero tolerance, stability factors.

Alisa R. Shishkina, Georgiy V. Shishkin. Intifada as a form of protest in the Middle East societies (pp. 78–101).

The article deals with the phenomenon of the Palestinian intifadas in the context of theoretical understanding of protests in the Middle East. The article analyses the complex of socio-economic and political preconditions for the emergence of protest actions, as well as their dynamics. The authors conclude that the first and second Palestinian intifadas can be put in a wider context of protests in the Middle East. Thus, the ‘active phase’ of the first Palestinian Intifada can be described as a fitnah, which evolves into a saura, while the second intifada can be described as a fitnah, which further inherits the features of a fauda and inqilab, with strong violent actions on both sides of the conflict.

Keywords: Palestine, Middle East, Arab Spring, intifada, fitnah, protest moods, turmoil, revolution, uprising, civil war, socio-political instability, dynamics of development, socio-demographic analysis.

Olga V. Karpachyova. The Moroccan experience: countering and preventing violent extremism (pp. 102–116).

The article considers counter-terrorism methods and strategies used by the Moroccan authorities in the context of increasing security threats as a result of the Arab Spring. It shows how to prevent the threat of extremist groups on the territory of the country. The new state counter-terrorism strategy, developed in recent years as part of the de-radicalization policy of the Moroccan authorities, is analyzed. The paper assesses the programs under this strategy to neutralize the destructive effects of Islamic radicalism and to counter the development of extremist sentiments.

Keywords: security threats, de-radicalization policy, radicalism, Islam, countering extremism, anti-terrorism, Arab Spring, Morocco.

Contents and Abstracts (pр. 117–118)