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History & Mathematics:Political, Demographic, and Environmental DimensionsVolgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2024. – 272 pp.
Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev
ISBN 978-5-7057-6354-2 Editorial Council:
Herbert Barry III (Pittsburgh University), Daniel Barreiros (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), Leonid Borodkin (Moscow State University; Cliometric Society), Christopher Chase-Dunn (University of California, Riverside), Tessaleno Devezas (University of Beira Interior), Jack A. Goldstone (George Mason University), Leonid Grinin (National Research University Higher School of Economics), Antony Harper (Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting), Peter Herrmann (University College of Cork, Ireland), Andrey Korotayev (Higher School of Economics), David J. LePoire (Argonne National Laboratory), Alexander Logunov (Russian State University for the Humanities), Georgy Malinetsky (Russian Academy of Sciences), Sergey Malkov (Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles Spencer (American Museum of Natural History), Rein Taagepera (University of California, Irvine), Arno Tausch (Innsbruck University), William Thompson (University of Indiana), Peter Turchin (University of Connecticut), Yasuhide Yamanouchi (University of Tokyo). |
The present Yearbook, subtitled Political, Demographic, and Environmental Dimensions, is the eleventh in the series. It consists of four sections: (I) Social-Political and Civilizational Aspects; (II) Demography; (III) Climate and Environment; (IV) Reviews.
This issue consists largely of the revised chapters of a report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. This report is the result of more than ten years of work on modeling and forecasting world dynamics, and it reflects the views of Russian scientists on the future of global development.
Its main goals are to do a preliminary work for the following tasks: (1) to give an analysis of changes through which the World System has come to its present state, based on an integrated approach (that incorporates the world-systems, historical and evolutionary approaches), on mathematical modeling, as well as on a systematic view of society, in which changes in one subsystem cause transformations in others; (2) to define the main vectors of transformations of the World System; (3) to make a detailed forecast of the development of all the main subsystems of society and the World System, while presenting three or four horizons of changes (from short-term to ultra-long-term up to a hundred years); (4) to present different development scenarios and make recommendations on how to switch to the most favorable development scenario.
We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
Leonid E. Grinin and Andrey V. Korotayev
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Introduction. Reconsidering the Limits to GrowthIntroduction. Reconsidering the Limits to Growth (Full text) |
I. Social-Political and Civilizational Aspects |
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Leonid Е. Grinin, Stanislav E. Bilyuga,Аndrey V. Korotayev, and Anton L. Grinin |
The Age of the State and Sociopolitical Destabilization: Preliminary Results of the Quantitative Analysis (Full text) |
Andrey V. Korotayev, Sergey G. Shulgin,Vadim V. Ustyuzhanin, Julia V. Zinkina, and Leonid E. Grinin |
Africa's Dynamics: History and Possible Futures (Full text) |
Sergey Yu. Malkov, Stanislav E. Bilyuga, andJameelah M. Musieva |
Life Quality Index (Full text) |
Karen Rasler, William R. Thompson,and Hicham Bou Nassif |
The Extent of Military Involvement in Nonviolent, Civilian Revolts and Their Aftermath (Full text) |
Antony Harper |
A Survivorship Pattern of Civilizations and Its Consequences (Full text) |
II. Demography |
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Andrey V. Korotayev, Sergey Yu. Malkov, andJameelah M. Musieva |
Toward Optimization of Global Demographic Processes (Full text) |
Sebastian Ascui Gac |
Hypotheses Testing for the Structural-Demographic Model for Political Instability and Social Unrest (Full text) |
III. Climate and Environment |
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Arno Tausch |
The Greening of the Global South? Analyzing World Values Survey and European Values Survey Data on Environmental Movements in 88 countries and Territories from 2017–2021 (Full text) |
Askar A. Akaev and Olga I. Davydova |
Climate and Energy (Full text) |
IV. Reviews |
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Antony Harper |
Rough Waters Ahead (Full text) |